Don’t treat Nolan Arenado like draft stud

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As someone who has moved many times over the past 20 years, moving is stressful (and not just on the day of the move).

The change of scenery, while often refreshing, takes some getting used to — new noises, stores, restaurants, people — and that takes time. You might have had your daily routine down pat when you were at your old place, but you’re drastically changing your life.

It’s no different for baseball players when they’re traded or sign with a new team — even if they’re one of the best in the game.

Despite finishing with a career-best 10 percent walk rate in 2020, Nolan Arenado had a career-low batting average (.253) and a .738 OPS, his lowest mark since 2013. He hit eight homers, drove in 26 runs and scored 23 while playing in 48 games. His struggles could be attributed, in part, to an injured AC joint in his left shoulder.

Arenado was on a 162-game pace to record 28 homers, 88 RBIs and 78 runs, according to Baseball Reference — a far cry from the expectations he created from 2015-19, when the slick-fielding former Rockies star hit .300 while averaging 40 home runs, 124 RBIs, 104 runs scored and a .937 OPS. He was an All-Star in each of those seasons and finished no worse than eighth in MVP voting each year.

Arenado was a surefire first-round pick — when his name came up, you clicked the draft button or ran up to the draft board (when we did in-person drafts) with a smile on your face.

This year? Well …

After being traded to the Cardinals, Arenado is not a first-round pick.

With his 32.3 average draft position, according to Fantasy Alarm, Arenado will now cost you second- or third-round pick. It seems like a bargain for a guy whose worst numbers from 2015-19 were a 37 homers, 110 RBIs, .898 OPS and a .287 average.

But, why the drop in price? Part of it is because of Arenado’s struggles in 2020 and his shoulder injury. Another factor: the Coors Effect. He became a fantasy asset in Colorado — hitting .322 with 135 homers, 461 RBIs and a .985 OPS in 543 games. He no longer has the luxury of playing half his games in Colorado’s offensive haven, so his stats in 536 games outside of Coors Field come into focus (.263 with 99 homers, 299 RBIs and a .793 OPS).

Does this mean Arenado will become the player he was outside of Colorado? Of course not. Players have had success after leaving Coors Field. DJ LeMahieu is a top-25 fantasy option after hitting .336 in his first two seasons in The Bronx (he hit .299 in seven seasons with the Rockies). Matt Holliday hit .287 while averaging 21 homers, 82 RBIs and a .859 OPS in various stops from 2009-17 after averaging 26 homers, 97 RBIs and a .938 OPS while hitting .319 with the Rockies from 2004-08.

Arenado likely will fall somewhere in between his splits. Baseball Reference is projecting him to hit .284 with 28 homers, 85 RBIs, 77 runs and a .872 OPS in 2021.

At his current ADP, Arenado is being taken before third basemen like the Angels’ Anthony Rendon, the Astros’ Alex Bregman and the Red Sox’s Rafael Devers, all of whom Roto Rage has ranked ahead of the former Rockie. Arenado also is being drafted ahead of top 20 pitchers like Luis Castillo, Brandon Woodruff, Blake Snell, Zac Gallen and Tyler Glasnow, none of whom Roto Rage would pass up to take Arenado sans Coors Field (especially with third basemen like Matt Chapman, Eugenio Suarez, Cavan Biggio and Alex Bohm available in later rounds).

Arenado became a fantasy gold mine in Colorado, but it’s going to be a different ballgame in St. Louis. Though the price is a bargain for a guy who consistently put up huge numbers, Roto Rage believes there are better buys out there.