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I was not surprised to see the Rams trade quarterback Jared Goff. It was a bad contract, and the Rams needed to move on if only for Sean McVay to no longer have his job attached to Goff’s performance.
I’m also not shocked the deal for Matthew Stafford came together so quickly, but I was hoping the Rams would hold off until right after the Super Bowl because the value is already gone. BetMGM has the Rams 6/1 to win the NFC behind only the Packers (+375) and Buccaneers (4/1). The Rams’ Super Bowl odds are a similarly dejuiced at 12/1. There’s no value there, unfortunately.
I was hoping to get a decent number on Stafford to win MVP — maybe 25/1 or 30/1. But at DraftKings, Stafford is 15/1, the fifth choice behind Patrick Mahomes (5/1), Rodgers (8/1), Josh Allen (13/1) and Russell Wilson (15/1), so there’s no value here.
The Chargers are a team I have my eye on for a number of reasons:
- They hired a competent head coach, Brandon Staley, who comes over after one year as the Rams’ defensive coordinator.
- They have a talented core: a franchise quarterback in Justin Herbert plus elite defensive talent in Joey Bosa and Derwin James. They also have Melvin Ingram, Kenneth Murray, Mike Williams and Keenan Allen plus other top-tier players. And they have the 13th pick in the draft.
- The Chiefs were exposed in the Super Bowl, and I’m not even 100 percent sure Andy Reid will coach them in Week 1 of the 2021 season. I think the AFC West is up for grabs in 2021.
I’m already looking to bet the field against the Chiefs to win the division and the Chiefs’ win total Under. At DraftKings, the Chiefs are the -455 favorite to win the AFC West, followed by the Chargers at +525, Raiders at 14/1 and Broncos at 15/1.
I’m in no hurry to pull the trigger, but I will likely reinvest some of the money I made on Justin Herbert winning the 2020 Offensive Rookie of the Year award in the Chargers in hopes that Herbert makes the leap to MVP candidate. Keep an eye on Herbert’s MVP odds, too, as 18/1 is a bit short this early, but he could be a candidate in 2021.
It’s Already Baseball
Betting Season
It might be that weird time between the end of the NFL and the start of spring training. Some people call it basketball season. But I’ve already put money back to work on 2021 MLB futures.
So far I’ve bet:
- Cardinals to win the NL Central +210 (after the Nolan Arenado trade).
- Dodgers to win the NL West -167 (before Trevor Bauer signed).
- Angels to win the AL West +500.
- Blue Jays to win the AL East +350.
- Mets to win the NL East +200.
- Dodgers to win the NL +220 and World Series +450 (after the Bauer news).
- Mets to win the World Series +850 (after the Francisco Lindor trade).
The Cardinals are currently +155 at BetMGM to win the NL Central. The Mets are +170 behind the Braves (+130) in the NL East. The Dodgers are -300 to win the NL West at BetMGM, and as I said I bet -167 because it was the best price we were going to see all season.
The Angels are still available at +350 and +400 to win the AL West. I still like that.
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