WGC-Workday Championship predictions, odds

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The WGC-Mexico Championship has been relocated to Florida this year due to COVID-19 concerns in Mexico. The Concession Golf Club in Bradenton, Fla., will play host this week to the WGC-Workday. Concession opened in 2006 and was designed as a Jack Nicklaus and Tony Jacklin collaboration. The course takes its name from the famous 3-foot putt “concession” that Nicklaus made to Jacklin on the 18th hole at Royal Birkdale at the 1969 Ryder Cup and ensured the first tie in Ryder Cup history.

Concession is a Par 72 of 7,494 yards so some power will be required off the tee. The parklands layout has generous fairways, but as typical for Nicklaus designs, it is a second-shot golf course.

All of the OWGR Top 50 are participating this week except Paul Casey and Tiger Woods, who wasn’t going to play before being injured in a car accident on Tuesday. World No. 1 Dustin Johnson (11/2) headlines the field. Here are some players who are worth a wager this weekend:

Jon Rahm (9/1)

Shot 66 last Sunday at Riviera to backdoor a top-5 finish. Despite the slow start, he finished fourth in the field for SG: Tee-To-Green, seventh for SG: Off-The-Tee and eighth for SG: Approach.

This week could be reminiscent of last July when Rahm finished T-27 in the Workday Charity Open in Dublin, Ohio, but found something in his Sunday final round to carry over for the following week and won the Memorial Tournament on a Nicklaus design next time out.

Rory McIlroy
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Rory McIlroy (16/1)

Missed the cut badly at Riviera, (ending a cuts-made streak dating back to 2019 at Royal Portrush. McIlroy has never been that great in the Golden State, save for the 2015 WGC Match Play win at TPC Harding Park in San Francisco. He returns to friendlier territory in the Sunshine State, where he has wins at the Players, Bay Hill, and at the Honda Classic on a Nicklaus-designed PGA National. McIlroy has two wins in four starts over the past three seasons playing the week after he missed the cut.

He was awful with the putter last week and lost six strokes over two rounds either on or around the greens. Going back to Florida should cure those ills. He ranks fifth among all PGA Tour players over the past five years for SG; Total per round on the Florida swing (1.92/round)

Patrick Cantlay (16/1)

Usually skips much of the Florida swing, but comes here for the WGC event played on a Nicklaus-designed layout. He won the Zozo Championship last fall at Sherwood and is a former champion at the Memorial Tournament, both on Nicklaus courses. He fell to a T-15 last Sunday at Riviera but was in contention for three rounds. Only Adam Scott and Matt Kuchar, both not in the best of current form, rank ahead of Cantlay for SG: Total on Nicklaus designs over the course of the last 50 rounds.

Viktor Hovland (20/1)

Chose not to defend his Puerto Rico Open title this week because he is here this week against the world’s elite. and the No. 14 player in the world is showing that he very much belongs. Over his last three starts, Hovland finished T-2 in San Diego, sixth in Saudi Arabia and T-5 last week in Los Angeles and ranked first in the field at Riviera for SG: Off-The-Tee.

Sungjae Im (33/1)

Took the last two weeks off after finishing T-17 in Phoenix. Now he returns to Florida on the Bermuda greens where he is at his best.

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